| George W. Bush's opportunity: Lessons from a man "in the arena" There is usually a point, in every administration, of inflection -- a "tide in the affairs of presidents," to paraphrase Shakespeare. By all appearances George Bush may be approaching that point, a point at which his administration will either fail to meet the challenge, as in Jimmy Carter's "malaise" of 1979, or rise to it: Ronald Regan in 1982, amidst pervasive Western pessimism, standing before the British Parliament and boldly proclaiming the triumph of democracy. How, substantively and stylistically, can George Bush capitalize on the opportunity before him? The president (and his staff) could do worse than to consult the recent book, In the Arena, a readable, insightful, and gentlemanly portrait of several decades of political, military, and economic history by one of the men who made it: former Defense Secretary, Budget Director, California Assemblyman, San Francisco television and radio host, and Harvard Crimson president, Caspar Weinberger. Weinberger's narrative of his fascinating life covers personal encounters with characters as diverse as General MacArthur, Tallulah Bankhead, Henry Kissinger, and Malcolm X. But that isn't the reason for Mr. Bush -- not to mention Condy Rice, Don Rumsfeld, Paul O'Neill, or Larry Lindsey -- to read it. Forewarned is forearmed. And in describing a rich life of service in several arenas, and a thoughtful profile of the triumphs and disasters of several administrations, Weinberger offers an earful of preventive alerts and an arsenal of counter-offensive weaponry. Consider just three particular problems (and corresponding opportunities) Mr. Bush faces: 1. The Enron Economy. This isn't the first time the country has been troubled by corporate greed and a seeming weakness at the very institutions supposed to deal with it. In eight short months as Chairman of the Federal Trade Commission in 1970-71, Weinberger helped turn an ineffectual lap cat of an agency into an emerging tiger. How did this happen? It's worth reading the book. Perhaps even more interesting, however, are Weinberger's observations as an official in the Nixon budget office. Richard Nixon went from a nominally small-government candidate to the architect of a great expansion of government (outside of the Defense Department, which shrunk greatly under Nixon.) George Bush is in at least some danger of becoming an unintended Nixon figure as he embraces protectionist trade policies, acquiesces in a huge farm subsidy bill, and allows Congress to squash his faith-based initiative, school choice, and other policies the president has rightly advocated (but needs to fight for.) How to avoid this fate as a latter-day Nixo-Keynesian? Weinberger offers an intelligent contrast between Nixon and Reagan on economic issues that brings this to light. 2. Tactical victories, strategic defeats, and $600 toilet seat covers The catalyst of the Reagan defense buildup, and a staunch defender of Reagan's the democracy-rollback strategy, Caspar Weinberger speaks with great authority on foreign affairs. He also understands something the Bush Administration is only just coming to appreciate first hand -- the historic tendency of democracies, in ill-defined un-declared wars, to become bogged down in strategic confusion. There is a like tendency for military buildups to become, and rather quickly, the object of nit-picking criticisms and outraged hearings on the part of what The Wall Street Journal has aptly called, "the Military-Congressional Complex." Weinberger has seen it all, from the 1982 Lebanon fiasco to the invasion of Grenada, from the success of even the threat of a Star Wars deployment, in 1986-87, to the $200 diode. Here again, his contrasts across administrations, and within administrations, makes for first-rate history writing, and history reading. 3. Character counts What comes through Weinberger's narrative most of all, however, and what is probably most valuable, is his rich understanding of men like Nixon and Reagan, and the men and women who served them. George Bush may be approaching that defining moment in his presidency where we learn, under stress and unexpected challenges, what he is about. My friend Richard Nixon, in 1970-71, failed dismally on the economy and regarding the morals of his administration, though he did launch the China diplomacy that will be his great legacy. Bill Clinton, in 1994-95, his health plan defeated, learned to triangulate with a GOP Congress, and producing a welfare reform, a high tech boom. It's anyone's guess whether George Bush now goes the way of Jimmy Carter, or Teddy Roosevelt. But Bush himself would be doing himself a favor to take a copy of Weinberger's brisk history to the ranch in August. Bush is, now, himself, profoundly "In the Arena." Weinberger has been there, and, as Vermont Royster would have put it, "he might have an observation or two worth noting." -- Gregory Fossedal |