Declining U.S. Refugee Admissions…
Cause for Concern?
ADTI FACT SHEET
By Shivane Patel
August 15, 2002
Refugee admissions to the United States have declined sharply in recent years in both absolute and relative terms – despite the heightened need, in terms of world refugee flows, for American generosity. In 2002, U.S. refugee admissions fell to fewer than 30,000 persons, compared to more than 90,000 just ten years earlier. As a share of America’s overall immigration pie, the decline in refugee admissions is even sharper.
The decline comes at a time when the United States is admitting a combined number of immigrants and refugees that is not sharply lower by historical standards. As well, public attitudes, even after the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, have not shown a significant rise in anti-foreign sentiment among American voters. While there is understandable concern about improving control of the U.S. borders with Canada and Mexico, and for improved administration of international travel, public opinion surveys show a majority of Americans think immigration should be kept “about where it is.”
In short, the trend raises the question of whether advocates of healthy and balanced levels of refugee and immigration levels have won the battle over the economic and cultural benefits of immigration, as a matter of policy debate – but are losing the policy-impact “war” in the lobbying trenches of Congress and the White House.
The historical trend of America’s open door to refugees can be seen if we look at indicative 10-year slices of U.S. immigration and refugee levels since the 1930s. The table below measures refugees as a share of all foreign persons admitted as either refugees or immigrants by the U.S.
1940-1959: 27 %
1970-1979: 16 %
1990-1999: 10 %
2001: 8 %
2002: < 4 %
Notes: (Due to changes in immigration laws, the figures for years prior to 1960 are estimates based on how entrants would have been classified if current U.S. laws had been applied at the time.)1941-1949 figure was 45 %, due to the impacts of war. From 1950-1959, the figure was 9 percent. To provide a balanced picture of refugee levels during this period, we combined the two decades, for an average of 27 percent. Similarly, 2002 figures (27,000 total refugees) were depressed by the sudden impact of 9/11 on the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Even assuming a projected increase to 40,000 refugees in 2003, however, the long-term trend of declining refugee admissions as a share of foreign entrants will continue.
Since 1990, the number of refugees in the world, according to United Nations figures, has approximately doubled – rising to more than 21 million in 2001, from 10 million in 1990.
The nature and trend of public attitudes and the U.S. debate over immigration and refugee admissions was analyzed in May, 2002 by AdTI’s Gregory Fossedal. It would appear that the trend towards declining refugee admissions has continued since that paper appeared. For policy-makers and members of the public concerned for the U.S. open door, particularly one that does not attempt to screen out refugees, it is not an occasion for panic. But it is time for concern.
Shivane Patel was AdTI’s John Glenn Intern in the Spring and
Summer of 2002. AdTI staffers Jennifer Rowe and Gregory Fossedal updated
the figures from her 15 August 2002 Fact Sheet on December 11, 2002.
Copyright © Alexis de Tocqueville Institution, 2002, all rights
reserved.